Modelling a pandemic

The PTF published in 2024 two papers: Lessons Learned from Pandemics and Implications of COVID-19 Protection Gaps.

In the first paper the PTF presented a high-level view of the lessons we have learned to date, primarily from the COVID-19 pandemic, but also built on lessons learned from other pandemics such as HIV/AIDS and the 1918 influenza pandemic. That paper reflected various actions and analyses in which members of the actuarial profession have been involved and considered several actuarial practice areas in order to provide education for the profession to respond to future pandemics.

In the second paper a protection gap was defined as the difference between the total potential losses resulting from a future uncertain event and reimbursable losses resulting from that potential uncertain event. In that paper protection insurance gaps arising from COVID-19 such as business interruption coverage, travel and event cancellation coverage were discussed. Recently (November 2025) the last paper of the PTF has been published: Implications of COVID-19: Data and Modelling a Pandemic. This paper examines key lessons learned from the COVID-19 crisis and explores how actuaries can contribute to better data collection, modelling, and decision-making in future pandemics. The conclusions of this paper are presented below.

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