And of separately projecting non-linear trends in lifestyle-attributable mortality (such as smoking-attributable mortality) next to the more linear trends in non-lifestyle-attributable mortality. Similarly, I argue that understanding past trends in socio-economic mortality inequalities and its different components is essential for an accurate forecast of future socio-economic inequalities in longevity. As the first part of the “Future Longevity Inequalities” research project, my research team and I have examined the individual and combined impact of smoking, alcohol, and obesity on past trends in educational inequalities in life expectancy in England & Wales, Finland and Italy.
In modern welfare states, people in a disadvantaged socio-economic position (SEP), either measured by income, occupation, or education, live on average 3-10 years less than people in an advantaged SEP. In recent decades, these unjust and undesirable socio-economic inequalities in mortality and life expectancy have even widened in several European countries despite efforts to reduce them. To fully grasp the past trends in socio-economic mortality inequalities, and to accurately predict them into the future, it is essential to examine potential trend breaks and to assess the role of lifestyle factors.
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